LEC: Linear Expectation Constraints for Selection-Conditioned Risk Control in Selective Prediction and Routing Systems 文章

arXiv:2512.01556v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Foundation models often generate unreliable answers, while heuristic uncertainty estimators fail to fully distinguish correct from incorrect outputs, causing users to accept erroneous answers without any statistical guarantee. We address this problem through selection-conditioned risk control, aiming to ensure that an accepted prediction has an error probability no larger than a user-specified risk level. To this end, we propose LEC, a principled framework that reframes selective prediction as a decision problem governed by a linear expectation constraint over selection and error indicators. This formulation directly controls the ratio between the expected number of accepted errors and the expected number of accepted predictions, which corresponds to the marginal error probability conditioned on selection.