An Alternative Trajectory for Generative AI 文章

arXiv:2603.14147v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The generative artificial intelligence (AI) ecosystem is undergoing rapid transformations that threaten its sustainability. As models transition from research prototypes to high-traffic products, the energetic burden has shifted from one-time training to recurring, unbounded inference. This is exacerbated by reasoning models that inflate compute costs by orders of magnitude per query. The prevailing pursuit of artificial general intelligence through scaling of monolithic models is colliding with hard physical constraints: grid failures, water consumption, and diminishing returns on data scaling. This trajectory yields models with impressive factual recall but struggles in domains requiring in-depth reasoning, possibly due to insufficient abstractions in training data.