WhenLoss: Diagnosing Write and Retrieval Bottlenecks in Long-Context Memory Systems 文章

arXiv:2605.24579v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long-context memory systems often fail under fixed budgets, but end-to-end evaluation does not reveal whether evidence was discarded during compression or preserved but never retrieved. We introduce a four-condition diagnostic protocol that evaluates a fixed reader under truncated full context (TFC), oracle evidence (OE), complete stored memory (CSM), and retrieved memory (RM). Under this fixed-budget LongMemEval setup, write-side gaps exceed retrieval-side gaps for most tested baselines, with four of six baselines robustly write-dominant under our default diagnosis margin. Motivated by this diagnosis, we propose Expected Predictive Compression (EPC), which moves the key decision--what information to retain--to write time by using an LLM to anticipate likely future questions and preserve the minimal supporting evidence under the token budget, while leaving retrieval unchanged at question time.