The Need for an External Observer Formalizing the Sufficiency Gap: A Mathematical Extension of Mixture Identifiability and Contextual Grounding in Sequence Models 文章

arXiv:2605.26711v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We construct a binary mixed-regime process with one deterministic textual regime and one random regime governed by an unobserved latent state. Even an ideal infinite-capacity sequence predictor that exactly recovers the text-only marginal law can become overconfident when the observed prefix is compatible with the wrong latent regime. The resulting entropy difference is not an ordinary optimization error; it is a sufficiency gap caused by marginalization over an unobserved state. We then formalize retrieval, tool use, and external grounding through an auxiliary binary signal with fidelity $\gamma \in [1/2,1]$. The resulting Bayesian update yields a contextual dominance threshold: a corrective signal reverses the posterior odds induced by the textual history exactly when its fidelity exceeds the text-only posterior weight assigned to the misleading regime. This threshold reduces, but does not generally eliminate, the sufficiency gap;