Beyond MSE: Improving Precipitation Nowcasting with Multi-Quantile Regression 文章

arXiv:2605.30122v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep-learning precipitation nowcasting models are often optimized using pointwise losses such as mean squared error or mean absolute error, which can lead to overly smooth forecasts and poor representation of heavy rainfall. This study investigates whether the predictive performance of an established deterministic nowcasting architecture can be improved by reformulating training as a multi-quantile regression problem. Using SmaAt-UNet as a core model, we compare MSE, MAE, and multi-quantile pinball-loss training on radar precipitation nowcasting over the Netherlands. The results show that multi-quantile training improves the central deterministic forecast, decreasing test-set MSE by 8.6\% compared to a model trained using MSE, while also producing upper-quantile outputs that are useful for risk-sensitive prediction of heavy precipitation.