ChessMimic: Per-Rating Transformer Models for Human Move, Clock, and Outcome Prediction in Online Blitz Chess 文章

arXiv:2606.04473v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present ChessMimic, a system of three small encoder-only transformers - for move, thinking-time, and outcome prediction - conditioned on the position, recent move history, player rating, and clock state. We fit a separate instance of each model per 100-Elo rating band, trading parameter efficiency for sharper per-skill calibration. On a held-out month-wide slice of Lichess Rated Blitz games ChessMimic's human move prediction accuracy outperforms Maia-2 in every Elo band. Compared to Maia-3, our 9M parameter model's accuracy sits between Maia-3-5M and Maia-3-23M without the additional complexity of Geometric Attention Bias. In addition to the move matching model, we also train a game outcome model that conditions not only on the position, but also player ratings, time control, and remaining clock times. The outcome model achieves an AUC of 0.