Counterfactual Analysis via Large Language Models 文章

arXiv:2608.05367v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Counterfactual analysis aims to predict potential outcomes under hypothetical scenarios, offering valuable insights for decision-making. This paper investigates the application of large language models (LLMs), specifically the GPT-3.5 model, for counterfactual analysis. We focus on the online lending context, where the counterfactual return on investment (ROI) is crucial for evaluating different interest rate schemes. We begin by assessing the predictive performance of GPT and comparing it with advanced machine learning algorithms. The results show that prompt engineering can significantly enhance GPT's predictions, with the R-squared increasing from 1.97% to 2.84%, closely approaching the 3.48% achieved by gradient-boosted regression. Subsequently, we utilize GPT to generate counterfactual ROIs under a set of alternative interest rates. GPT exhibits logical coherence and causal reasoning in its responses.