Beyond Static Uncertainty: Modeling Temporal Uncertainty Dynamics for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting 事件

Beyond Static Uncertainty: Modeling Temporal Uncertainty Dynamics for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting arXiv:2603.24254v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Real-world time series exhibit temporally structured uncertainty: volatility clusters in turbulent regimes, dissipates in stable periods, and shifts abruptly around structural breaks. Yet many probabilistic forecasting methods estimate predictive uncertainty as an independent per-step quantity, leaving the evolution and persistence