Aligning LLMs with Human Uncertainty: A Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator for LLM Forecasting 事件

Aligning LLMs with Human Uncertainty: A Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator for LLM Forecasting arXiv:2605.27668v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Probabilistic forecasting estimates the likelihood of uncertain future events. To improve LLM forecasting, existing methods typically learn from binary outcomes to output verbalized forecasts. However, while aggregated human forecasts contain rich information in both the crowd probability estimate and the degree of agreement among forecasters, how to utilize th