Prefix-Safe Bayesian Belief Tracking for LLM Reasoning Reliability:Separating Calibration from Ranking 事件

Prefix-Safe Bayesian Belief Tracking for LLM Reasoning Reliability:Separating Calibration from Ranking arXiv:2605.27712v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long reasoning traces need reliability estimates before final answers are known. We study prefix-conditioned eventual-success estimation, $P(y=1 \mid o_{1:t})$, using prefix-safe observations. Sequential Bayesian Belief Tracking (SBBT) calibrates observation likelihoods and recursively updates a two-state belief, providing a common tracker for sc