Stance Detection in Prediction Markets: Addressing Imbalanced Trader Commentary via Counterfactual Augmentation and Market Context 事件

Stance Detection in Prediction Markets: Addressing Imbalanced Trader Commentary via Counterfactual Augmentation and Market Context arXiv:2605.28745v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Prediction markets such as Polymarket aggregate crowd beliefs into real-time probability estimates, and the comments traders post beneath each market contain rich directional stance signals that prices alone cannot capture. This work introduces the first stance detection study applied to prediction market commentary, a