Thinking Fast, Thinking Wrong: Intuitiveness Modulates LLM Counterfactual Reasoning in Policy Evaluation 事件

Thinking Fast, Thinking Wrong: Intuitiveness Modulates LLM Counterfactual Reasoning in Policy Evaluation arXiv:2604.10511v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for causal and counterfactual reasoning, yet their reliability in real-world policy evaluation remains underexplored. We construct a benchmark of 40 empirical policy evaluation cases drawn from economics and social science, each grounded in peer-reviewed evidence and classified by int