When Can We Trust Early Warnings? Leakage-Excluded Early Outcome Prediction from LMS Interaction Logs 事件

When Can We Trust Early Warnings? Leakage-Excluded Early Outcome Prediction from LMS Interaction Logs arXiv:2605.25794v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Early-warning models built from Learning Management System (LMS) logs aim to predict end-of-course outcomes early enough to enable timely learner support. However, reported "early" performance is often inflated by temporal leakage. This occurs when the pipeline uses information that would not yet be available at the time of prediction. We formaliz