On the Asymptotic Behaviour of Posterior Distributions 论文

摘要

Summary Let a random sample of size n be taken from a distribution having a density depending on a real parameter θ, and let θ have an absolutely continuous prior distribution with density π(θ). We give a rigorous proof that, under suitable regularity conditions, the posterior distribution of θ will, when n tends to infinity, be asymptotically normal with mean equal to the maximum-likelihood estimator and variance equal to the reciprocal of the second derivative of the logarithm of the likelihood function evaluated at the maximum-likelihood estimator, independently of the form of π(θ).