Predicting future locations with hidden Markov models 论文

摘要

The analysis of human location histories is currently getting an increasing attention, due to the widespread usage of geopositioning technologies such as the GPS, and also of online location-based services that allow users to share this information. Tasks such as the prediction of human movement can be addressed through the usage of these data, in turn offering support for more advanced applications, such as adaptive mobile services with proactive context-based functions. This paper presents an hybrid method for predicting human mobility on the basis of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). The proposed approach clusters location histories according to their characteristics, and latter trains an HMM for each cluster. The usage of HMMs allows us to account with location characteristics as unobservable parameters, and also to account with the effects of each individual's previous actions. We report on a series of experiments with a real-world location history dataset from the GeoLife project, showing that a prediction accuracy of 13.85% can be achieved when considering regions of roughly 1280 squared meters.