Assessing spurious "moderator effects": Illustrated substantively with the hypothesized ("synergistic") relation between spatial and mathematical ability. 论文

摘要

The traditional methodology for assessing moderator variables (hierarchical multiple regression analysis) is examined. Possible drawbacks of this technique for corroborating psychological theories (cf. Busemeyer & Jones, 1983), are illustrated empirically on the basis of an analysis of 400,000 subjects. This article tested a well-known (and currently popular) substantive hypothesis: A synergistic relation exists between mathematical ability and spatial visualization in the prediction and development of sophisticated levels of advanced mathematics. Using the traditional methodology, this hypothesis was confirmed; however, on further analysis, using a more systematic approach, it was demonstrated that this finding was spurious. Suggestions are offered for modifying the traditional methodology used for assessing moderator effects (for both applied and theoretical purposes). These amount to ways for minimizing Type I and Type II errors.